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The PMIs surprise to the upside in the Eurozone early in the second quarter

Eurozone: significant improvement in both sectors T he preliminary estimate of the composite PMI increased 0.9 points in April to 54.0, above expectations (BBVA Research: 53.5; Consensus: 53.0), the highest level in almost three years. This improvement was due to increased confidence in both the manufacturing sector (53.3 from 53.0 in March) and , mainly, in services (53.1 from 52.2). Overall, the rate of expansion could continue in May , as in April new orders and backlogs of work increased, with manufacturing supported by external demand as suggested by the increase in orders from abroad, … [Read more...]

Portugal: ‘Domestic demand continues to recover at the beginning of the year’

Our MICA-BBVA model forecasts zero growth in the first quarter after the positive surprise in 4Q13 Higher expectations from households and the increase in retail sales point to recovery in 1Q14. In the first quarter of 2014 the improving trend in household confidence (first seen in 4Q12) continued, mainly thanks to movements in the labour market and expectations of a sustained reduction in the unemployment rate i n the next few months, which is reflected in increased consumption, with retail sal es growing 3% to February over the average for 4Q13 (Figures 4 and 6), also brightened by very low … [Read more...]

NZD/USD Holds 0.8550 Support- Need Hawkish RBNZ for Higher High

- Reserve Bank of New Zealand to Raise Rates for Second Straight Meeting. - Market Participants Pricing 97% Chance for 25bp Rate Hike According to OIS. Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision According to a Bloomberg News survey, all of the 15 economists polled anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver another 25bp rate hike in April, but the statement accompanying the rate decision may have a greater impact on the NZD/USD as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. What’s Expected: Why Is This Event Important: Indeed, … [Read more...]

AUD/NZD Fails to Close Above 1.09- GBP/NZD Risks Fresh Highs on RBNZ

Talking Points: - USDOLLAR Continues to Search for Lower High; Watching for Close Above 10,470 - AUD/NZD Fails to Close Above 1.0900; Hawkish RBNZ to Prompt Further Declines - GBP/AUD Breaks Out of Bearish RSI Momentum; Higher High on Tap? Index Last High Low Daily Change (%) Daily Range (% of ATR) DJ-FXCM Dollar Index 10471.57 10478.16 10449.81 0.18 93.73% The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) poked above the 10,470 pivot as Australia’s Consumer Price report dragged on the AUD/USD, but we will continue to look for opportunities to ‘sell … [Read more...]

UK’s modest investment recovery still a concern

Forex News and Events: The FX markets trade on economic data / news today. The softer-than-expected AUD inflation, the ongoing contraction in China, the lower budget deficit in UK and optimistic BoE minutes, mixed PMI readings out of the Euro-zone are the main talking points. GBP trades softer versus USD & EUR despite good economic news, while AUD continues to be offered across the board. AUD/NZD trends down as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike its OCR for the second consecutive month at April 24th meeting. UK budget deficit narrows, BoE minutes show optimism The BoE … [Read more...]

AUDUSD trapped between 10 and 20 day SMA’s ahead of key inflation data

Live Technical Analysis TV Up to 30 Live Video Streams Per Day & Bank Level News - Try Free for 3 days and Learn Technical Analysis as its Happening! A ForexTrading.TV Technical Analysis Video Alert for AUDUSD … [Read more...]

USD/CAD: The Long View Remains Bullish?

When market volatility dies down, it’s often worthwhile to take a step back and look at the long-term trends, rather than getting bogged down in tiny 20-pip swings. With its recent lackluster price action, the USD/CAD provides the perfect case study to put that perspective into action. The USD/CAD has been trapped within a meaningless 40-pip range just above 1.1000 thus far this week, but by taking a look at the last few years of price action, we can see that the pair remains in a long-term uptrend off its early 2011 low near .9400. Seen in this light, the drop from the mid-March high only … [Read more...]

AUD/NZD Outlook Hinges on 1Q CPI- EUR/GBP Risks Fresh Lows on BoE

Talking Points: - USDOLLAR Eyes October Low (10,354) After Carving Lower High. - EUR/GBP Risks Fresh Lows on Hawkish BoE Minutes. - AUD/NZD Continues to Mark Failed Attempts to Close Above 1.0900. Index Last High Low Daily Change (%) Daily Range (% of ATR) DJ-FXCM Dollar Index 10446.6 10470.17 10444.65 -0.21 84.71% The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains at risk of giving back the advance from back in October (10,354) as it fails to push back above the 10,470 pivot, and the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback may gather pace ahead of … [Read more...]

USDOLLAR Rebound Loses Steam – GBP/USD to Lead Breakout?

Talking Points: - USDOLLAR testing uptrend from April low. - GBPUSD at topside of multi-month ascending triangle. - Forex economic calendar focuses on US housing data on Tuesday. Yesterday we examined some of the causes behind the US Dollar’s weak start to 2014, which has largely bucked consensus expectations given the widespread belief that US Treasury yields would rise amid the Federal Reserve’s tapering of QE3. Today, the technical vulnerability of the US Dollar is revealed via the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, an equal-weighted basket of the US Dollar versus the Australian Dollar, … [Read more...]

Aussie gains on CPI expectations above RBA’s target band

Forex News and Events: As traders are back from Easter holidays, the FX activity slowly picks up. The persistence in EUR strength raises discussions on a “more likely QE”, while we still don’t see active pricings for such eventuality yet. April 15th CFTC data showed recovery in speculative EUR-long positions last week (despite Draghi’s QE threats). In UK, the Cable consolidates gains. BoE minutes are due on Wednesday; EUR/GBP approaches our mid-target. In Australia, the Aussie broadly gains as CPI expectations in Q1 are above RBA’s target band. The April preliminary Chinese … [Read more...]