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Daily EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Stochastics, MACD Point to Potential Sells

Talking Points: - EURJPY pressing lowest levels since February. - EURUSD technical indicators point to weakness. - July forex seasonals in QE era still working against greenback, however. The Euro hasn't been able to clear its pre-ECB highs from last week, and now technical sell signals may be cropping up. Of the two major EUR-crosses, neither EURJPY nor EURUSD has made much progress to the topside the past week, perhaps due to reintroduced Euro-Zone debt crisis sentiment surrounding Portuguese bank Espirito Santo missing a debt payment. Whether or not this is simply a one-off event in the … [Read more...]

AUD Hangs Hopes On Status Quo RBA Minutes and Strong China Data

Hourly Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral RBA Minutes unlikely to shift expectations for a “period of stability” for Australian interest rates Yield advantage may continue to offer support to the currency amid low vol. environment Strong readings from a slew of upcoming Chinese economic data would bode well for the AUD The Australian Dollar finished relatively flat for the week despite several bumps along the way. Domestic data presented a mixed bag with soft employment figures offsetting some positive leads from a rebound in … [Read more...]

Will Canada Employment Spark New Lows in USD/CAD & Alter BoC Policy?

- Canada Employment to Increase Another 20.0K in June . - Jobless Rate to Hold at an Annualized 7.0% for Second-Month. Trading the News: Canada Net Change in Employment Another 20.0K rise in Canada employment may trigger fresh monthly lows in the USD/CAD as it limit’s the risk of seeing the Bank of Canada (BoC) further embark on its easing cycle. What’s Expected: Why Is This Event Important: An upbeat job report may spur a material shift in the policy outlook as BoC Governor Stephen Poloz scales back his willingness to deliver another rate cut, and the central bank may adopt a more … [Read more...]

AUD/USD to Eye 0.9500 on Strong Australian Employment Report

- Australia Employment to Increase for Fifth Time in 2014. - Jobless Rate to Uptick to an Annualized 5.9%- Highest Since February. Trading the News: Australia Employment Change The AUD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the beginning of the month as the Australian economy is expected to add 12.0K jobs in June. What’s Expected: Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar Why Is This Event Important: However, an uptick in the jobless rate may spark a mixed reaction in the AUD/USD as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) persistently highlight the ongoing slack in the labor market, and … [Read more...]

Why are Current Forex Market Conditions Ideal for Many Traders?

- Forex volatility is near record lows, conditions point to tight trading ranges - Technical conditions favor US Dollar strength going forward - Where are the trades for the USD? The US Dollar looks set to stick to tight ranges versus the Euro, Japanese Yen, and other currencies. Why is this a good thing for traders? Forex volatility prices continue to trade near record lows and point to slow-moving markets in the week ahead, and our data shows that the majority of traders tend to do well in these conditions. Most traders tend to range trade: they buy currencies that are cheap and sell … [Read more...]

July Forex Seasonality Foresees More Dollar Weakness versus Aussie, Pound

Talking Points: - July continues stretch of four out of five months seeing weakness for US Dollar, the past 5 years. - Commodity currencies look to outperform – July has been strong for AUD, CAD, NZD. - Precious metals best two months of the year are July and August in QE era. See the full rundown of seasonal patterns broken down by currency pairs below, and to receive reports from this analyst, sign up for Christopher’s distribution list. The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. In our previous … [Read more...]

GBP/USD Breakouts Out, GBP/CHF Next – EUR/USD Jumpy Pre-ECB, NFPs

Talking Points: - GBP-crosses starting to breakout - EURGBP, GBPCHF next? - EURUSD nears 1.3700 before ECBs, US NFPs on Thursday. - See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Thursday, June 26, 2014. No summer slowdown is in sight for the UK economy, and the British Pound is streaking to fresh 2014 highs versus the US Dollar as a result. The June UK PMI Manufacturing report was the latest clip of ammunition the Sterling needed to take its next leg higher. The question is, were you properly positioned for the GBPUSD rally? If not, fear not: opportunities may be afoot elsewhere. Mainly, our focus … [Read more...]

Aussie Dollar Gains After Flat RBA Outcome, China Data May Be Trigger

Talking Points: Aussie Dollar Gains After Flat RBA Outcome, China Data a Possible Trigger German Jobs, Eurozone and UK PMIs May Not Drive EUR & GBP Volatility US Dollar Looking for a Lifeline in Upbeat ISM Print’s Impact on Fed Bets The Australian Dollar edged higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a status-quo monetary policy announcement. Glenn Stevens and company left the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2.50 percent as expected and once again argued for a “period of stability” going forward. Absent anything meaningfully outside the priced-in policy outlook … [Read more...]

AUD/USD Risks Fresh 2014 Highs on Less-Dovish RBA Policy Statement

- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to Keep Benchmark Rate at 2.50%. - RBA to Preserve Current Policy for the Eighth Consecutive Meeting. Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to retain its current policy in July, the policy statement accompanying the interest rate decision may heavily impact the AUD/USD should the central bank alter its forward-guidance for monetary policy. What’s Expected: Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar Why Is This Event Important: We may get more of the same from the … [Read more...]

Dollar at Critical Support, and We See Strong Risk of a Bounce

- Short-term volatility prices jump ahead of critical event forex event risk - US Dollar trades near significant support ahead of important data - Divergence in key Dollar pairs warns that a reversal may be imminent The US Dollar trades at key support versus the Euro and other counterparts ahead of big forex event risk. Might we finally see significant price reversals? FX Options markets are ramping up bets on sharp price moves as we await key data out of the US and a European Central Bank interest rate decision. All the while, the Euro trades at critical price resistance at the confluence … [Read more...]