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Testimony2

Testimony

by Larry Levin   Now that the Greece crisis is solved (HA!), the world has turned their attention (and HFT black boxes) to the long awaited address of the Senate Banking Committee from the Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen. What will she say? Almost more importantly, what is the tone of her words? These statements and subsequent Q&A are so nuanced, it borders on insanity. As related to policy: *YELLEN: `PATIENT' MEANS LIFTOFF UNLIKELY FOR COUPLE OF MEETINGS *YELLEN: GUIDANCE CHANGE TO MEAN LIFTOFF POSSIBLE AT ANY MEETING *YELLEN: FED WILL RAISE WHEN `REASONABLY CONFIDENT' ON INFLATION *YELLEN: FED WILL CHANGE FORWARD GUIDANCE BEFORE RAISING RATES *YELLEN SAYS FED WILL REDUCE BALANCE SHEET GRADUALLY *YELLEN: NEW GUIDANCE NOT NECESSARILY LIFTOFF IN COUPLE MEETINGS *YELLEN: BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION MAINLY VIA HALTING REINVESTMENT As related to the macros: *YELLEN SAYS GDP STRONG ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY LOWER JOBLESS RATE *YELLEN: LOWER OIL PRICES SIGNIFICANT NET PLUS FOR U.S. ECONOMY *YELLEN SAYS FOREIGN DEVELOPMENTS COULD POSE RISKS TO U.S. *YELLEN SAYS LOWER BOND YIELDS PARTLY REFLECT WEAKNESS OVERSEAS *YELLEN SAYS CHINA COULD SLOW MORE AND EURO AREA FACES RISKS *YELLEN SAYS RISKS FACING FOREIGN OUTLOOK NOT JUST ON DOWNSIDE *YELLEN SAYS INFLATION TO FALL FURTHER IN NEAR TERM *YELLEN SAYS IMPROVING JOBS AND FADING OIL IMPACT TO LIFT PRICES Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial, said the market reaction to Yellen’s testimony indicates that it was perceived as dovish. “The 10-year yields fell, the dollar gave up gains and stocks rose, even though those moves were not huge. At this points, just as the Fed is data-dependent, markets are data-dependent too. Investors will be watching every data point carefully,” Krosby said. “Today’s Janet Yellen is the same Yellen who in 1994 warned Alan Greenspan to be careful about raising rates too soon and too fast. The Fed needs to see more evidence that the economy is … [Read More...]

Downgrade

Stocks Dip on Mixed Earnings

The U.S. equity markets are trading modestly lower in early action, with the Street digesting a plethora of earnings reports, with Target's upbeat quarterly results overshadowing some cautious guidance, while Hewlett-Packard issued a profit warning due to the U.S. dollar's strength. Lowe's Companies posted favorable 4Q results and guidance, while Dollar Tree topped earnings expectations but offered a disappointing outlook. Treasuries are lower as Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen will continue her Congressional testimony, while U.S. mortgage applications fell and new home sales are due out after the opening bell. Gold and crude oil prices are higher, while the U.S. dollar is lower. Overseas, Asian stocks finished mixed despite an upbeat read on Chinese manufacturing activity, while European equities are mostly lower following some mixed earnings reports in the region. As of 8:51 a.m. ET, the March S&P 500 Index future is 1 point below fair value, the DJIA future is 3 points below fair value, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is 8 points south of fair value. WTI crude oil is rising $0.34 to $49.62 per barrel, Brent crude oil is increasing $0.65 to $59.31 per barrel, and gold is trading $6.26 higher at $1,206.79 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index—a comparison of the U.S. dollar to six major world currencies—is down 0.2% to 94.28. Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ $38) warned the negative impact of the U.S. dollar's strength will be significantly greater than anticipated, issuing softer-than-expected 2Q and full-year earnings-per-share (EPS) guidance. The outlook came even as its fiscal 1Q EPS of $0.92 topped the FactSet estimate by a penny, while revenues of $26.8 billion fell 5.0% year-over-year (y/y), short of the $27.4 billion expectation. Target Corp's (TGT $77) 4Q adjusted EPS of $1.50, topped the $1.46 estimate, while revenue growth of 4.1% y/y to $21.8 billion, compared to expectations of $21.7 billion. Same-store sales rose 3.8% y/y, versus the 3.0% … [Read More...]

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Testimony2

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