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FOT409814

Interpretation

      by Larry Levin   After the morning dump, the market came back with the typical low volume, algo driven melt-up. While the economic news was bad (a decline in June existing home sales) and the geo-political situation continued to deteriorate, things weren’t bad enough to warrant new all-time highs, just a mostly positive close. With the VIX below 13, clearly there is not a care in the world! It will take more than a powder keg in the Middle East and the most tense US –Russian relations in years to spook these markets. So what economic data do we have ahead this week to not care about? It’s a crowded calendar of events that can be interpreted multiple ways to move the market higher. Tuesday we have the consumer confidence numbers with a lowered expectation from the previous month of 0.2%. Along with that we have the Case-Shiller home price index. The previous growth for May was 10.8% year over year. Wednesday the FOMC meets, but with no press conference scheduled, we can only intuit they will continue with “the measured withdraw of QE.”we have the ADP employment numbers, a precursor to the Jobs numbers Friday. Last month the number was 281K added. A BIG number on Wednesday is the GDP number. With the final count for Q1 coming in at an abysmal -2.9%, I’m chomping at the bit to see how they do with their estimate of 3.2% positive growth. Thursday we have our jobless claim numbers. Last week’s surprise drop from the 310K estimate to the actual 284K was one of the biggest drops we have seen and (on the surface) shows a growing economy. Unfortunately it doesn’t take into effect the people that have given up. Chicago PMI comes out as well with its estimate of 64.1. Friday is going to be the granddaddy of the week. Non-farm payroll numbers (aka the jobs report) comes out with its estimate way short of the previous month’s surprise upside. Maybe they are lowering estimates in order to get an upside … [Read More...]

europe_flag

Equities Pare Gains as EU Agrees to Further Russian Sanctions

      The U.S. equity markets have pared gains but remain modestly higher in afternoon action, with exacerbated geopolitical concerns as the European Union agreed to impose further sanctions on Russia partially offsetting some upbeat earnings and economic data. Dow member Merck & Co topped the Street's quarterly expectations, while U.S. Consumer Confidence jumped to the highest level since October 2007. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting tomorrow's monetary policy decision from the Fed, along with the first read on 2Q U.S. GDP. Treasuries are mixed, with a separate report showing domestic home prices came in below expectations. In other earnings news, Dow component Pfizer topped analysts' expectations, while UPS reported mixed quarterly results and disappointing guidance. Moreover, Aetna's higher medical costs are overshadowing its stronger-than-expected results, while Herbalife missed analysts' forecasts. Gold and crude oil prices are lower, while the U.S. dollar is higher. Overseas, European equities pared gains on the EU's new Russian sanctions, but managed to finish higher. At 12:49 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.2%, the S&P 500 Index is ticking 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite is trading 0.3% higher. WTI crude oil is declining $1.15 to $100.52 per barrel, Brent crude oil is decreasing $0.20 to $107.37 per barrel, and wholesale gasoline is flat at $2.83 per gallon. Elsewhere, the Bloomberg gold spot price is trading $6.96 to the downside at $1,297.09 per ounce, and the Dollar Index—a comparison of the U.S. dollar to six major world currencies—is up 0.3% to 81.23. Dow member Pfizer Inc. (PFE $30) reported 2Q earnings ex-items of $0.58 per share, one penny above the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet, with revenues declining 2.0% year-over-year (y/y) to $12.8 billion, compared to the $12.5 billion that the Street had projected. The drugmaker reaffirmed its full-year profit guidance. PFE … [Read More...]

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FOT409814

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